There are tons of different frameworks on what makes a good business idea. However, there is one point in particular that is tough to crack: “What if [Google] does it?”—i.e., if the big incumbent that is playing in the same or an adjacent market uses their vast resources to copy you, what chance do you even have?
This is what in German we call a Totschlagargument, which in our loving and peaceful language translates roughly into “the argument with which you can beat anything to death”. And it is easy to dismiss the question because in so many cases startups have prevailed against much larger incumbents. But I believe a more nuanced view is needed. In reality, these incumbents pose a legitimate threat in many cases and they have ended countless hopeful startups.
I discuss this topic frequently—both with founders considering whether to dedicate a decade of their life to something, and with colleagues when we’re thinking about being the first investor—but haven't found a great framework.
Here are the key questions that help me wrap my head around this:
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